TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/112392/1123unk.000

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                                                                                THE POLITICAL INTEREST, Page 27

Building a World-Class Team


By Michael Kramer


    Bill Clinton has been elected to fix the economy.
Everything else is secondary. He knows it, and the nation
expects it. The question is how to deliver. After promising
change and offering hope during the campaign, the
President-elect is currently counseling caution and patience.
Each bow to urgency (the people want "aggressive and prompt
action, and I'm going to give it to them") is coolly qualified:
"We didn't get into this mess overnight, and we won't get out
of it overnight."

    Dampening expectations is prudent and shrewd, but it won't
get Clinton off the hook. A sick economy in 1996 will sink him.
No one expects miracles, and few will quibble if the economy
isn't completely well, but it had better be on the mend and be
seen to be. "If 70% of the people still think the country is on
the wrong track," says a Clinton aide, "we're dead." While key
policy decisions hang unresolved, several structural and
personnel determinations are of equal importance. Foremost is
the exact role of the Economic Security Council, the new White
House-based group Clinton is fashioning to force a change in
policy development without expending precious political capital
on a government-wide reorganization. In public, Clinton's aides
see the council as fostering team spirit; in private, they
predict that the President-elect will order agency heads to
subordinate their independence to the ESC.

    Several administrations have had economic coordinating
offices. Some were workable power centers; others were abject
failures. By all accounts, the best was President Ford's
Economic Policy Board. "Ours worked for two reasons," says
William Seidman, the former Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation chairman who ran the board. "First, Ford insisted
that no decisions be made until they passed through the board's
processes, which kept end runs to a minimum. Second, [Treasury
Secretary] Bill Simon wasn't interested in running the
day-to-day operation. He forcefully presented Treasury's view
but never pulled rank. He was satisfied to be the
Administration's public spokesman," a role Simon had codified
in the presidential Executive Order creating the board.

    Following Ford's example, Clinton will face the challenge
of selecting people willing to play their assigned roles
without complaint. If his appointment of Harvard's Robert Reich
to oversee economic issues during the transition translates into
Reich's anointment as Economic Security adviser, the
Administration will be well served. "Besides being smart as
hell, Bob has the temperament to manage competing egos," says
Roger Altman, a Clinton economic-policy adviser. "He is
unflappable and well respected, someone the others could work
with harmoniously, knowing their positions would be faithfully
presented to the President."

    Borrowing Ross Perot's favorite phrase, Clinton promises
a "world class" economic team, but the entire arrangement will
founder if the traditional "first among equals" doesn't get with
the program. Here is a brief look at the leading candidates for
Treasury Secretary and their strengths and weaknesses:

    -- Paul Volcker: The former Federal Reserve chairman,
famous for taming inflation, is the odds-on favorite. Volcker's
selection (especially in combination with Alice Rivlin, the
leading contender for Budget Director) would calm financial
markets worried about Clinton's commitment to reduce the
deficit. But transition insiders are concerned that Volcker may
be "too stubborn. We'd get great press by appointing him," says
a Clinton aide, "but living with him for four years could be
hell. On the other hand, if he can do to the deficit what he did
to inflation, they can call off the '96 election."

    -- Lloyd Bentsen: The Texan, who chairs the Senate Finance
Committee, wants the post, but Clinton may conclude he can
better help by staying put. "He'd send the same signals as
Volcker," says a Clinton adviser, "but we haven't worked with
him and he may be out of synch with what we want to do."

    -- Robert Rubin: The co-chairman of Goldman, Sachs & Co.
raised big bucks for Clinton and is well regarded in financial
circles. "But he hasn't had any government experience, and he
isn't particularly good at public presentation, which the
Treasury Secretary had better be good at," says a Clinton aide.

    -- Roger Altman: The vice chairman of the Blackstone Group
investment banking firm served as Jimmy Carter's Assistant
Treasury Secretary. "Roger's the best at working with the rest
of us, and he knows Washington," says a Clinton adviser. "He's
known for taking the deficit seriously, but at 46 he may be too
young for a President of the same age. Yet if all that matters
after four years is the bottom line, Altman could help us get
on its good side."

    The latest from Little Rock is that Clinton has kicked
back this and other lists asking for "more names, different
names." That's "his pattern," says a Clinton aide, "but he often
returns to the original list, as he did with Al Gore." That is
why the smart money is on Volcker, Rivlin and Reich, a trio that
would satisfy Clinton's desire for a "Wow!" response from the
financial community. "All he knows for sure at this point," said
this Clinton aide last Friday, "is that whomever he selects had
better play well with others. Only collegiality will get
results, and without results, Clinton will hit 1997 as a very
young ex-President."